Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Heat Advisory
- SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 120603
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
203 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Both the marginal risk (level 1 of 5) and slight risk (level 2 
of 5) of severe weather on Friday were pulled back a bit further
west; chance of severe weather is low but not zero for eastern 
MA/RI.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity continues through Friday before we get a break 
  in the humidity, even if not so much from the heat. 

- Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible
  both Thursday and Friday, a few of which could be severe. 

- Above normal temperatures continue this weekend but with a
  little less humidity. Dry weather prevails until a risk for 
  showers and thunderstorms develops Sunday night, and a couple 
  could become strong.

- Cooldown to more seasonable temperatures with drier weather
  for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity continues through Friday before we 
get a break in the humidity, even if not so much from the heat. 

Temperatures in the 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to 
low 70s have brought a muggy feel to the air today under a very 
moist airmass (PWATs near 1.75"). 850 mb temps surging to near 20C 
today will persist through Friday under a building mid level ridge 
and this prolongs the bout of above normal heat/humidity through 
Friday. Those elevated dewpoints will make temps in the upper 80s 
and 90s feel more like the 90s to near 100 (in the CT valley). The 
exception will be along the coast, especially the east coast of MA 
where onshore easterly flow keeps temps more comfortably in the 70s 
to mid 80s. The Heat Advisory continues through Friday with low 
temperatures limited by the elevated dewpoints to the upper 60s/low 
70s. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are 
possible both Thursday and Friday, a few of which could be severe. 

The same heat and humidity mentioned above are contributing to 
2,000+ J/kg of CAPE across SNE this afternoon and that will be 
conducive to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon owing to a few 
mid level shortwaves providing enough lift as they slide overhead. 
Ample moisture and instability are available, but a limiting factor 
is minimal 0-6km bulk shear 20-25 kts in the area where the best 
forcing and instability are. That being said, given the magnitude of 
instability it should be enough to overcome the limiting shear 
values to produce a few strong storms, one or two of which could be 
severe. The main threat will be damaging winds with a batch of 
storms moving in from NY; this is where the greatest threat is. 
Another batch of showers/storms likely initialize along a seabreeze 
boundary over eastern MA this evening as well with a lesser severe 
risk. 

Friday we'll have a similar setup with not much change in the 
airmass (instability and shear specifically) as the broader mid
level shortwave approaches so modest height falls as well as an
approaching cold front and quasi- seabreeze boundary will 
provide some lift to kick off a few clusters of thunderstorms. 
The first to see storms will likely be eastern MA and RI where 
that quasi- seabreeze boundary/onshore flow will likely help 
initialize some storms by mid afternoon. An approaching cold 
front from NY will also be moving through midnight which will 
lead to a broken line of storms from west to east 7pm-midnight; 
however, we will be losing our diurnal heating early in that 
period so instability and severe potential will be decreasing 
quickly; best chance of severe weather is in western MA and CT 
where we have placed a Slight (level 2 of 5) severe risk. 

KEY MESSAGE 3...Above normal temperatures continue this weekend but 
with a little less humidity. Dry weather prevails until a risk for 
showers and thunderstorms develops Sunday night, and a couple could 
become strong.

While still very warm to hot on Saturday, we should see a bit less 
humidity compared to the past couple days. Dry weather should 
prevail as shortwave ridging governs, with areas along the MA east 
coast and around Narragansett Bay. Highs should again reach well 
into the 80s to low 90s but with dewpoint temperatures in the upper 
50s/near 60 compared to the upper 60s/low 70s, it should be a 
somewhat drier heat. Under shortwave ridging, the risk for afternoon 
storms also looks to be mitigated with dry weather anticipated. 

Southwest flow resumes on Sunday and with it comes a bit of an 
increase to humidity level but not to the extent of today or Friday. 
We'll also be waiting on an approaching cold front to trigger 
showers and thunderstorms, and while the exact timing varies, 
there's some general agreement on it being a later arrival (after 5 
PM) into western New England. Midlevel flow increases Sunday in 
response to the approaching shortwave aloft with WSWly 0-6 km 
shear vector magnitudes around 35 to 45 kt, supportive of severe
weather potential. The issue is more tempered instability with 
the later-day timing and dewpoints being on the lower side, with
better instability more restricted to the northern mid-Atlantic
region where SPC has delineated a 15% probability for severe 
storms. PoPs increase into the Likely range for showers and 
thunderstorms Sunday evening, but if storms can produce severe 
weather is still a question mark, which will hinge on either an 
earlier timing or higher forecast dewpoint temperatures. 

KEY MESSAGE 4...Cooldown to more seasonable temperatures with drier 
weather for early next week.

Cooldown to temperatures for early next week, as the offshore 
passage of the cold front allows more of Southern New England to 
become governed by cooler cylonic flow aloft. 850 mb temps drop to 
around the +10 to +12C range versus the +16 to +18C range, 
supporting highs in the 70s to low 80s under sunny conditions to go 
along with comfortable humidities. Dry weather also prevails through 
Tuesday until a wave of low pressure in SW flow brings a risk for 
showers and thunderstorms around midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update:

Friday: Moderate confidence.

VFR. Light onshore winds developing, with light W winds away 
from the coastal TAFs. A few rounds of TSRA could develop, first
in the 18-00Z time period over eastern MA and RI terminals 
along the seabreeze boundary, then again a broken line of storms
is possible in the 23z-06z period. Confidence remains low, so 
elected to keep out of TAF at this time.

Friday night...High confidence.

SHRA/TSRA exiting by 06z. VFR except near the Cape/Islands 
where MVFR visbys under BR may creep in off the waters. NW winds
5-10 kts.

Saturday....High confidence.

VFR. Generally northwesterly winds around 10 kts.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR. Could see a 
few TS develop 16-23z Fri along the seabreeze boundary, but 
confidence remains to low to include in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF. VFR. Light W winds 
turn southerly with a round of late-day TS possible.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: VFR. 

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. 

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday Morning...High confidence.

Seas generally 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft across the far outer water
through Saturday morning. Isolated to scattered showers 
possible again Friday night. Otherwise, winds remain below SCA 
levels.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain showers
likely. 

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. 

Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain showers. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ002>006-
     008>014-017-018-026.
RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>004.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McMinn
AVIATION...McMinn
MARINE...McMinn