Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 130807
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
407 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry with above normal temperatures continuing through
  the weekend with humidity on the decrease.

- Expecting showers and thunderstorms Sunday night with the risk
  for severe weather remaining low.

- Seasonable temperatures and lower humidity returns through the
  first half of next week before a return to a more active
  pattern late-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Mostly dry with above normal temperatures 
continuing through the weekend with humidity on the decrease.

Temperatures remain in the upper 80s to low 90s through the 
weekend as an unseasonably warm airmass remains draped over New 
England. However, there will be a noticeable difference in the 
"feels like" temperatures compared to the last few days as 
dewpoints drop to the mid to upper 50s in the wake of a cold 
front pushing offshore this morning. With a ridging pattern 
moving into place aloft, expecting conditions to remain dry 
through most of Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Expecting showers and thunderstorms Sunday 
night with the risk for severe weather remaining low.

A cold front pushing into Southern New England Sunday night 
will increase the risk for showers and thunderstorms. 
Instability likely remains low heading into the overnight hours,
despite elevated shear magnitudes, which will help to mitigate 
the risk for storms to turn severe. Uncertainty still remains in
rainfall totals, with the latest suite of guidance indicating 
2.0"+ PWATs could stretch anywhere from DelMarVa to Portland, 
ME. The ECMWF is the most aggressive, bringing 2.0-2.15" PWATs 
along the entirety of the I-95 corridor, but the GFS and 
Canadian guidance keep that deep moisture further south across 
Long Island. The latest round of ensembles and AI ensembles 
continue to keep the worst PWATs off our southern waters; 
however, there is a noticeable northward trend from run-to-run. 
Certainly something to keep an eye on as the day progresses.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Seasonable temperatures and lower humidity 
returns through the first half of next week before a return to a
more active pattern late-week.

A cooler and much drier airmass then works into Southern New 
England Monday into Tuesday. Latest guidance shows 850 mb temps 
now dropping to around +8 to +10C, some 5-7C lower than we've 
been seeing. Highs are likely to drop into the low 80s, with 
dewpoints plummeting into the mid 40s to mid 50s, bringing about
much more comfortable "feels like" temperatures. Temperatures 
will start to climb again heading into Wednesday, but are still 
seasonable in the low to mid 80s with still tolerable humidity 
levels. 

More active weather looks to develop around Thursday or 
Thursday night, as a stronger disturbance aloft moves in and 
sweeps a cold front through Southern New England. This could 
bring a better shot at showers/storms, although it's still too 
early for specifics at this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update:

Through Sunday Morning: High confidence.

VFR through the period. NW winds around 8-12 kts, but shift to 
W around 5-10 kt after 22z. Not expecting any seabreezes today. 
Winds shift SW late tonight/early Sunday morning.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA likely, chance TSRA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. 

Monday Night: VFR. 

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. 

Tuesday Night: VFR. 

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday Morning...High confidence.

Seas generally 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft across the far outer 
waters through Sunday morning. Otherwise, winds remain below SCA
levels.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers
likely, chance of thunderstorms. 

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. 

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McMinn
AVIATION...McMinn
MARINE...McMinn