Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Light rain, Overcast
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 162302
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
702 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High astronomical tides with less than a foot of storm surge
  could cause minor coastal flooding for the late evening high 
  tides. 

- Mostly dry Wednesday but there is a chance for scattered pop-
  up showers and thunderstorms across western/central New
  England and some showers over the Cape & islands. 

- Gusty southerly winds with some showers and perhaps a few t-storms 
  on Thursday. Watching the severe weather potential too...But right 
  now thinking main threat will be to our west and/or south. 

- Beautiful stretch of weather Friday into the weekend with highs 
  mainly between 75 and 85 degrees with the warmest of the days 
  being Friday. Comfortable humidity the entire period.  

- Perhaps a period of much needed rain to kick off the start of
  the next work week...But that is uncertain given 6+ days in
  the future.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...High astronomical tides with less than a foot of 
storm surge could cause minor coastal flooding for the late evening 
high tides. 

Astronomical tides continue to very slowly come down through the 
week, overall lessening the coastal flooding/splashover risk each 
day. Still expecting at least one to two more tide cycles reaching 
just into minor flooding. Highest confidence of localized coastal 
flooding will be the high tide late tonight/early Wednesday morning, 
and a coastal flood statement remains in effect for this reason. 
There is potential that this statement will need to be extended 
through Wednesday but confidence is too low at this point. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mostly dry Wednesday but there is a chance for 
scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms across far 
western/central New England and some showers over the Cape & 
islands. 

A relatively quiet day expected on Wednesday, if not as quiet as 
today. Southerly flow will increase as SNE becomes sandwiched 
between a surface high pressure over the western Atlantic and an 
approaching low over the Great Lakes. This will advect more moisture 
into the region with PWATs rising from 0.5" today to around 1" 
Wednesday while dewpoints also rise from the mid 40s to the low to 
mid 50s. This will make it feel modestly more humid but not bad 
while also increasing cloudcover and moisture content for some 
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Not expecting widespread 
coverage of showers/t-storms but the best chance for an afternoon 
storm will be in western and central MA where we'll have several 
hundred J/kg of CAPE combined with lift from a weak mid level 
shortwave. Secondarily, Cape Cod and the islands may get some 
showers from the periphery of a weak low passing well offshore. 

KEY MESSAGE 3...Gusty southerly winds with some showers and 
perhaps a few t-storms on Thursday. Watching the severe weather
potential too...But right now thinking main threat will be to 
our west and/or south.

Approaching mid level shortwave/warm front will be crossing the 
region Thu morning. Modest lift will likely result in a cluster of 
elevated showers and perhaps an embedded t-storm or two mainly Thu 
morning. The bulk of this rain may end up northwest of I-95 and 
especially west/northwest MA given their closer to the better 
dynamics. After the first round of showers departs...a 50+ knot 
southerly LLJ will result in gusty southerly winds depending on how 
much heating we are able to realize. Perhaps on the order of 25 to 
35 mph seems reasonable at this time. Again...that could be 
less/more depending on the amount of heating we are able to realize. 
Right now we have highs in the upper 70s to near 80 given elevated 
showers and a lot of clouds. 

While this first round of showers will tend to diminish Thu 
afternoon...the window for surface destabilization ahead of the 
approaching cold front may be limited. There may also be subsidence 
behind this first round of showers. That being said...we still will 
need to watch the risk for severe weather too given strong wind 
fields/jet dynamics...But right now thinking that the main risk will 
be to our west and/or south where better instability likely resides. 

KEY MESSAGE 3...Beautiful stretch of weather Friday into the weekend 
with highs mainly between 75 and 85 degrees with the warmest of the 
days being Friday. Comfortable humidity the entire period. 

Two closed upper level lows just south of Hudsons Bay will
result in height fields lower than normal Friday into this
weekend across the Northeast. This will suppress deeper moisture 
to our south and result in a beautiful stretch of weather. High 
temperatures will generally be between 75 and 85 with
comfortable humidity. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be
in the 50s to the lower 60s. 

Generally dry weather is on tap over this time period too. Some 
northern stream energy may result in a diurnally driven brief spot 
shower or two...But for all intensive purposes dry and beautiful 
June weather is on tap. 

KEY MESSAGE 4...Perhaps a period of much needed rain to kick off the 
start of the next work week...But that is uncertain given 6+ days in 
the future.

Quite a bit of uncertainty for the start of the next work week. Some 
of the guidance has a low pressure system tracking near or south of 
us. If that were too happen...the potential would exist for a period 
o some much needed rain sometime Mon into early Tue. But given lack 
of baroclinicity in the summer and convective processes that are 
usually involved...it is way too early to have any confidence 
especially given it is 6+ days in the future. Something to watch 
though in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update...

Tonight...High Confidence. 

VFR. Winds becoming light SW/calm. 

Wednesday...High Confidence. 

VFR despite mid level cloudiness. Winds becoming S at 5-10 knots
except localized sea breezes developing along portions of the
immediate coast. A few afternoon/evening spot showers possible
in the distant interior...but otherwise dry weather continues.

Wednesday Night...High Confidence. 

VFR during the evening with some MVFR to localized IFR
conditions developing toward daybreak across parts of the
interior and areas near the south coast. Scattered showers may
also develop toward morning with the focus across interior MA.
Winds becoming SE at 5 to 10 knots late. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. 
 
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA, patchy BR.

Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Saturday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. 

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Wednesday night: High confidence. 

Winds and seas to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through Wednesday night. Some gusts around 20 kt possible this 
afternoon around the Cape and islands, especially across the 
southern coastal waters.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers,
patchy fog. 

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Slight chance of
rain showers. 

Juneteenth: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 7 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers. 

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers. 

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW/Frank
AVIATION...BW/Frank
MARINE...BW/Frank