Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Lexington, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 140638
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
238 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Slight risk (level 2/5) exists for the chance of 
thunderstorms Sunday night for western MA, including CT. 
Damaging winds are the primary risk. Otherwise, general trends 
remain unchanged.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with above normal temperatures continuing through the day 
  Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday night.

- High astronomical tides and up to one-foot of storm surge
  could cause minor coastal flooding for the evening high tides
  tonight, Sunday night and Monday night.

- Seasonable temperatures and lower humidity returns through the
  first half of next week before a return to a more active
  pattern late-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with above normal temperatures continuing 
through the day Sunday.

An unseasonably warm airmass remains overhead for southern New 
England for the rest of today into tomorrow, supporting above-normal 
temperatures with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Lows tonight 
will fall into the upper 50s/low 60s for most, with the coastal 
areas only falling to the upper 60s. However, drier conditions will 
persist with dewpoints down in the mid to upper 50s, so it will 
continue feeling not as uncomfortable as previous days. High 
pressure will remain affixed over the region for much of Sunday 
before the next system approaches in the evening hours.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday night.

A cold front associated with an approaching shortwave disturbance 
will push through southern New England Sunday night will aid in 
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Storms are 
expected to move through between 6-11 PM Sunday evening/night, 
and for western MA (into CT), a Slight (level 2/5) risk for 
severe weather has been raised. Latest guidance has more of an 
indication for an elevated convection setup towards the eastern 
slopes of the Berkshires down into Hartford, with the main risk 
being damaging winds. In terms of rainfall totals, there is 
still some uncertainty regarding where the heaviest rainfall 
will occur. Based on the latest guidance, there may be a "split"
of higher totals that move just to the north and south of 
southern New England, but this could change depending on the 
development of a mesolow that could shift offshore heading into 
Monday morning. This would considerably limit rainfall amounts 
over southern New England. Currently, the region could expect 
totals ranging between 0.25-0.35" of rain and that low feature 
would be tracking more just off the coast of Maine. PWAT values 
are mainly forecast around 1.5" with pockets of 2.00"+ creeping 
north into RI, SE MA, and the Cape and Islands. Ensembles and 
deterministic members have continued trending this core of the 
moisture plume further north into these areas. Considering the 
convective nature of these showers/storms, locally higher 
rainfall totals are not out of the question. These showers and 
storms should be clear of the region by ~7 AM Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...High astronomical tides and up to one-foot of 
storm surge could cause minor coastal flooding for the evening 
high tides tonight, Sunday night and Monday night.

Astronomical tides will be building to their highest level for this 
month this weekend into Monday. The evening high tide periods both 
tonight, Sunday night and Monday night pose the greatest risk as 
these high tides are the highest. Latest storm surge forecast data 
from P-ETSS and Stevens Institute indicate about a half to up to one 
foot of storm surge, peaking Sunday/Sunday night. 

This is a low-ceiling coastal flooding scenario, with splashover or 
at worst minor coastal flooding in the usual vulnerable shoreline 
roads (including but not limited to Easy Street in Nantucket and 
Morrissey Blvd in Boston). However given that there are more 
visitors to Southern New England who may not be as familiar with 
coastal flooding, we opted to issue Coastal Flood Statements for 
much of the southern and eastern coast with a Coastal Flood Advisory 
for Nantucket. These start tonight and run through Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Seasonable temperatures and lower humidity 
returns through the first half of next week before a return to a
more active pattern late-week.

Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints move into southern New 
england at the beginning of the work week. 

Latest guidance shows 850 temps dropping below +10C most areas 
Monday and Tuesday. Dewpoints start to once again increase 
Wednesday, and global ensembles disagree about precipitation chances 
Wednesday with the GFS ensembles bringing precipitation chances back 
Wednesday during the daytime with the EC ENS holding off until 
Wednesday night if at all. Temperatures will start to climb again 
heading into Wednesday, but are still seasonable in the low to mid 
80s with still tolerable humidity levels. 

Unsettled weather continues Thursday into Friday as a stronger 
stronger disturbance aloft triggers more widespread shower/storm 
activity throughout southern New England. Specifics about timing and 
amounts still to be worked out, but  moves in and sweeps a cold 
front through Southern New England. This could bring a better shot 
at showers/storms, although it's still too early for specifics at 
this timeframe. Early indications showing a trend toward dryer 
weather to start next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

Sunday: High confidence. 

VFR. SW winds increasing to 10-15 kt, with gusts to 25 kt.

Sunday Night: Moderate confidence.

Areas of MVFR to IFR possible with incoming SHRA and TSRA 
associated with a passing cold front. Expecting bulk of the 
storms to pass thorugh 00-06z west of ORH and roughly 06-10z 
east of ORH. Winds prevailing out of the south from 10-15 kt 
sustained, shifting NW in the wake of the front. Gusts to 25 kt 
expected to continue through at least the first half of the 
nighttime period.

Monday: High confidence.

IFR conditions improve to VFR or high-end MVFR by 15z as the 
rain moves offshore. Generally NW winds decreasing to near 10 
kts thorughout the day.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence 
in timing. Expecting the rain to arrive by at least 07z, but 
could arrive as early as 05z. Could see some rumbles of thunder,
but lower confidence in how far east lightning will travel.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence 
in timing. Rain could arrive as early as 01z, but expecting 
arrival no later than 03z. Uncertain as to how widespread 
lightning will become, so included in PROB30.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. 

Tuesday Night: VFR. 

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday...High confidence.

Seas generally 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft across the far outer 
waters through Sunday morning. Winds pick up from the S Sunday, 
sustained between 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt possible.

Sunday Night...High confidence.

Seas increase to 4-5 ft across the outer waters Sunday night 
into Monday, and winds pick up slightly, sustained between 15-20
kt and gusting to 25 kt. Winds also shift more W heading into 
Monday morning. Some showers and thunderstorms are a possibility
during the overnight period over the waters, and localized 
gusts over 25 kt cannot be ruled out.

Monday....High confidence.

Seas remain 4-5 ft across the southern waters, but drop to 2-4 
ft across the northern waters. Likewise, wind gusts remain 
around 20 kts across the southern waters and drop to near 10 kts
across the northern waters.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. 

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers. 

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EDT Monday for 
     ANZ230-236.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Monday for 
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McMinn
AVIATION...McMinn
MARINE...McMinn